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2/16/10 Midnight Report: The Fed’s New Slogan: Where M-Raising Happens

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The market rose again today (which is actually the new permanent opening line for Money McBags’ daily column so if you want to save yourselves five minutes, just add references to unemployment, inflation, Fermat’s last theorem, and Malene Espensen, then rinse, spit, and consider the column finished).  That said, the market didn’t just rise because it is Wednesday, it rose because the FOMC said things are picking up just enough to keep QE2 going (because apparently making sure the dip is bought is in the Fed’s charter along with keeping inflation in check and acting like a bunch of asshats), Iran is moving warships in to the Suez Canal (though they claim it is just a sight seeing mission as the crew is short one of those Jerusalem snow domes to complete their collection), and people at the playboy mansion continue to fall ill (and note to Hef, that is what happens then you invite Corey Feldman over one time too many) with the illness being blamed on a mystery bug (perhaps it was a Katy(Marie)did or a headwig).

Oh wait, those are all reasons for the market to go down, because the need for fiscal stimulus and the unrest in the Middle East are about as positive for the ponzeconomy™ as googling “Santorum” is for Rick Santorum’s election campaign (and the awesomeness of this being the top result for that search might be reason enough to give Al Gore whatever is greater than a Nobel Prize for creating the internet), but as always, just buy the fucking rip.

Anyway, the big news today was that the FOMC’s minutes were out from their last meeting and we learned that the Fed will be keeping QE2 in place because the economy remains somewhat shitty.  That said, the headlines for the minutes had more spin than a drunken lepton as the media ran with things like “Recovery on Firmer Footing” (perhaps footing even firm enough for Rex Ryan) and focused on the Fed raising their GDP growth expectations to 3.4% to 3.9% growth this year, from their previous guess of 3.0% to 3.6% while ignoring the fact that <4% growth doesn’t do a shit ton for getting the ponzeconomy™ back to healthy levels and the jobless rate will remain elevated through at least 2012 (unless the Fed can continue to push that pesky labor force participation rate down).

In the minutes we also learned that there was some debate about slowing down QE2 until dissenters were reminded that doing nothing is tantamount to admitting their jobs are meaningless, the Fed is disappointed in the pace of job creation (no fucking shit, you know who else is disappointed?  The ~18MM people not working and Pam Anderson‘s agent), the cockposterous rise in commodity prices will not cause inflation (mainly because the B(L)S will just keep rejiggering the weights of core CPI until the only thing it measures is the number of people who spell “Kocherlakota” correctly on their first try as that will never be an elevated number), and Janet Yellen is really pissed that Charles Evans keeps forgetting to leave the toilet seat down in the Fed’s private bathroom.

But Money McBags’ favorite part of the minutes was when the fed shrugged off rising commodity prices by saying “the factors affecting the ability of businesses to pass through higher prices to consumers were viewed as complex and hard to monitor in real time.“  First of all, cry Money McBags a fucking river that your job is “complex” and “hard,” seriously you want a real hard and complex job try being the asshole that has to write dick jokes about this shit every fucking day instead of the fuckrods who just set the policies, big difference in the degree of difficulty.  But guess what, you are getting paid to do that hard and complex job so would a bonus of “shut the fuck up” help.”  And secondly, um, you know this is already monitored in real time so what is so hard and complex about clicking on a link?  And these people are in charge.  Ugh.

In macro news, core PPI rose .5% which was highest rate in more than two years as apparently R. Kelly went on a drinking binge and aimed for the head (trust Money McBags there is a really bad pun in there).  The number was above the .2% guessed at by economists and foreshadows the build up of inflationary pressures in the economy about as subtly as Michael Chabon foreshadows anything in his writing (and there is a reason Money McBags doesn’t read modern novels) or as subtly as Charlie Sheen foreshadows his intentions on a new hooker‘s first trick.

In other macro news, housing starts were up 14,6% which makes as much sense as Keith Olbermann joining something called Current TV (because Money McBags is pretty sure the award winning when Genius Prevailed gets more traffic than whatever the fuck Current TV is) or Melissa Archer not having a better career, because shouldn’t the weather have affected the numbers since it supposedly wreaked havoc on anything else having to do with going outside such as shopping, working, and dickflashing.  That said, permits for future home construction dropped sharply after they were pulled forward last month to get ahead of tax code changes in three states (with the largest of those states being the state of despair).

As for the market, DELL beat guesses and jumped ~11% thanks to a surge in business hardware and something about people no longer having enough money to buy Macs.  DELL earned $.53 per share which was up from $.28 per share and well ahead of guesses of $.37 per share and the company guided to 5% to 9% growth, though stripping out warranty replacements, growth will be closer to flat.

In other earnings news, Deere’s profit doubled thanks to sales of large high-margin machines and price increases (inflation inshmation) and the company raised their full year guidance.  Deere said rising prices of food commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, and Trustex flavored condoms (and Money McBags hears the Strawberry is mouth tingling good) have boosted farmers’ investments in new equipment and are helping Deere’s topline.  Also, Officemax was down 10% after returning to profitability but announcing that increased promotions, the fuck awful economy, and the fact that their stores look like homeless shelters, will continue to pressure results.

In retail stocks, Family Dollar was up ~21% after it was announced to be going private in a $7.6B transaction (which is just $1B below the price of going for Brooklyn Decker‘s privates) and Abercrombie and Fitch was up after a strong Q thanks to sales in Europe where the douchebag look is just coming in to style.

And finally RIMM was up ~5% after C upgraded it to a buy from a sell and boosted its price target to $80 a share from $56.  When asked for the reason behind the upgrade, the analyst cited RIMM potentially benefitting from the Nokia-Microsoft smartphone partnership and cited the fact that he hadn’t printed research in a while and needed to get something out so funds would trade with C and thus boost C’s commission revenue.

In small cap stocks just about everything was up today so good on you if you owned anything (though better on you if you owned this).  Money McBags mentioned GLNK briefly yesterday and they were able to hold their 28% gain from Tuesday which is a good sign that there may be real investors getting in to the name.  It is on Money McBags’ to do list (just after TNAV and Izabel Goulart) as the growth seems real and it has been pretty consistent, but the company just hasn’t been able to get scale until perhaps now.  Speaking of TNAV, they continue to break out and on the surface it looks hella fucking cheap with strong growth trends.  The problem is that Money McBags hates their business as they are basically the SIRI of the GPS world because they are selling a service people can essentially get free from a little something called Google maps.  That said, the company does have strong recurring revenue (which Money McBags loves), nice growth trends, and a very reasonable multiple so Money McBags hopes to spend some more time on them in the next few days if he gets a chance.

Money McBags is a bit worn out right now so no detailed small cap analysis today, but hopefully tomorrow he’ll dig in to some more ideas (especially this idea).  And if today’s headline didn’t make sense to you, it is a pun on the NBA’s “Where Amazing Happens” marketing campaign, trust Money McBags that it is both clever and funny.


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